Hot off it’s win at the Gotham Independent Film Awards, Winter’s Bone brought in 7 Independent Spirit Award Nominations. The films shares the Best Feature category with 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right, Black Swan, and Greenberg. 

See the full list of nominees here.

The general consensus among those in the know is that 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right, and Black Swan are shoo-ins for the Best Picture category at the Oscars, while Greenberg doesn’t seem to have much of a shot. But what about Winter’s Bone?

It’s chances are looking better. 

But while Winter’s Bone may make it into the Academy’s top 10, history would tell us that it’s chances of winning are slim. This past year was the first time in history that the top winner at Gotham also took home Best Picture (The Hurt Locker). Also, if Winter’s Bone fares well at the Indie Spirit awards, it may fall curse to the “Win Saturday, Lose Sunday” fate that is joked about in the industry — the Spirit Awards are held the day before the Oscars and the winners there rarely win the following evening. 

Now, let’s talk about my favorite and arguably the most competitive category of this year’s Oscar season: Best Actress. 

The 6 women up for Indie Sprit Awards this year are Annette Bening, Greta Gerwig, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, and Michelle Williams. Certainly Bening and Portman will be among the 5 woman up for the Academy Award this year, but who will fill the other 3 slots? Will it be one of these 4? Or will it be Halle Berry for Frankie & Alice, Helena Bonham Carter for The King’s Speech, Hilary Swank for Conviction, or even someone else?

It’s hard to say. If I had to guess now, I’d predict that Kidman, Williams, and Carter will snatch the remaining spots.

Let’s the race continue.